Thursday Night College Football Kickoff: Best Bets, Props, And Parlay For August 28, 2025

College football is officially back, and Week 1 wastes no time delivering intriguing matchups under the Thursday night lights. With Nebraska taking on Cincinnati at Arrowhead Stadium and Boise State heading to Tampa to face South Florida, bettors have two nationally relevant games with plenty of storylines, statistical matchups, and sharp angles to attack.

If you’re looking for value in props and parlays, this is where the numbers, weather, and team tendencies all come together. Let’s dive in.

Game 1: Boise State vs. South Florida (Raymond James Stadium, Tampa)

Kickoff: 5:30 PM ET

Line: Boise State -5.5 | Total 62.5

Venue: Raymond James Stadium, humid and stormy forecast

Why This Game Matters:

Boise State brings back quarterback Maddux Madsen, who threw for over 3,000 yards last season, and faces a USF defense that ranked among the worst in scoring prevention in 2024. USF counters with Byrum Brown, a dual-threat QB whose rushing ability can flip a game, especially in hot, humid conditions.

Key Factors To Watch:

• Weather: 93°F, sticky humidity, and possible storms — favors QB scrambles and higher rushing volume.
• Boise State Strength: Elite ground attack in 2024, paired with Madsen’s efficient passing game.
• USF Weakness: Struggled in both scoring and rush defense last season.

Betting Angles:

• Madsen’s offense is projected in the mid-30s by multiple models.
• Brown’s rushing usage is likely elevated in humid conditions and against a defense that forces QBs to move off-script.

Game 2: Nebraska vs. Cincinnati (Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City)

Kickoff: 8:00 PM ET

Line: Nebraska -6.5 | Total 51.5

Venue: Arrowhead Stadium, neutral site, clear skies, mild temps

Why This Game Matters:

This neutral-site clash pits Nebraska’s elite run defense against Cincinnati’s ground-and-pound attack. The Huskers turn the offense over to true freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola, while Cincinnati leans on Brendan Sorsby (2,813 yards, 18 TDs last season) and Corey Kiner (1,153 rushing yards).

Key Factors To Watch:

• Nebraska Defense: Allowed just 3.4 yards per carry (#17 nationally) in 2024 — stout against the run.
• Cincinnati Offense: Leaned heavily on Kiner; if he’s bottled up, Sorsby will be forced to throw more.
• Venue Conditions: Arrowhead weather is perfect for passing and kicking — no weather excuses.

Betting Angles:

• Nebraska’s defense should limit Kiner’s efficiency.
• Expect a conservative early script from Raiola, with designed runs and play-action sprinkled in.

Injury & Availability Notes

• No major injury news surfaced heading into either game.
• Monitor late reports, but both teams expect to be close to full strength.

Best Bets For August 28

1. Corey Kiner (Cincinnati) — Rushing Yards UNDER
   
• Nebraska’s defensive front allowed just 3.4 yards per carry last year.
• Neutral site means no home-field energy to boost Cincy’s ground game.
• If the Bearcats fall behind, Kiner’s volume risks shrinking.
2. Maddux Madsen (Boise State) — Over 1.5 Passing TDs
   
• USF defense gave up points in bunches in 2024.
• Models project Boise in the mid-30s — plenty of TD equity.
• If books hang a “2+ TD” prop at plus money, it’s a strong ladder spot.

Value Parlay (Correlated Play)

Boise State Moneyline + Byrum Brown (USF) Over 25 Rushing Yards

• Boise is favored and models give them a 59–60% win probability.
• Brown’s rushing attempts should rise in humid conditions regardless of game script.
• Correlated outcome: Boise wins the game while Brown still racks up yards on the ground.

Final Thoughts

Thursday’s openers give us two strong betting opportunities: fading a feature back against Nebraska’s front seven, and buying into Boise State’s quarterback against a leaky South Florida defense. Add in a creative parlay combining Boise’s win probability with USF’s best offensive weapon, and you’ve got a sharp card to attack.

College football is back — and if these matchups are any indication, 2025 is going to be a wild ride.

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