The LIV Golf train rolls into Indianapolis this weekend, and the stakes couldn’t be higher. With just a few events left in the season, Jon Rahm is chasing Joaquin Niemann for the individual title, and Chatham Hills is the perfect battleground. Let’s break down the key storylines, betting angles, and plus-money props to lock in before Friday’s shotgun start.
🏌️♂️ Tournament Snapshot
• Event: LIV Golf Indianapolis
• Dates: August 15–17, 2025
• Course: The Club at Chatham Hills (Pete Dye design, par-71, ~7,100 yards)
• Weather: Partly cloudy Friday, highs in the mid-80s, warming through the weekend
• Format: 54-hole shotgun start, no cut
🔥 Player Form & Storylines
Joaquin Niemann enters Indy as the season leader with five wins and 208.43 points. Jon Rahm trails by just 12.27 points, despite not having a win this year. He’s been a model of consistency with 11 top-10 finishes, including a T2 last week in Chicago.
Dean Burmester took the win in Chicago with rounds of 68-65-71 (-9), while Rahm and Josele Ballester tied for second. Ballester’s tee-to-green and putting stats were elite, and Paul Casey quietly posted a T5 with strong approach numbers.
📈 Course Setup & Key Stats
Chatham Hills is a water-heavy Pete Dye layout with tricky greens and elevation changes. The par-3 7th and par-5 8th offer scoring chances, while the 18th sets up dramatic finishes.
Key stat leaders heading into Friday:
• Driving Distance: Niemann (328.8 yds), DeChambeau (327.8 yds)
• Greens in Regulation: Rahm (73.9%), Niemann (72.9%)
• Scrambling: DeChambeau (67.2%)
⏰ Tee Times & Featured Pairings
Friday’s shotgun start kicks off at 12:05 PM ET. The marquee trio of Rahm, Niemann, and DeChambeau starts on Hole 1. Other key pairings include Oosthuizen, Johnson, and Koepka on Hole 10, and Casey, Herbert, and Leishman on Hole 5.
💰 Betting Picks & Props
Let’s get to the good stuff. Based on recent form, course fit, and matchup edges, here are the top plays for Friday:
Best Bets
1. Jon Rahm to Win (+460)
Rahm leads the tour in strokes gained tee-to-green and ranks top five in birdie rate. He’s been knocking on the door all season and this setup suits his precision game.
2. Paul Casey Over Bubba Watson (-125)
Casey’s approach play and putting are trending up, while Bubba’s been inconsistent. Casey also posted a T5 last week, making this a sharp matchup angle.
Value Parlay
• Ballester Top 20 Finish (-105) + Casey Over Watson (-125)
Ballester’s recent T2 and T7 finishes, combined with elite off-the-tee stats, make him a strong value. Pairing him with Casey’s matchup edge pays around 2.5x and offers a solid blend of upside and safety.
Final Word
LIV Indy is shaping up to be a Rahm redemption arc or a Niemann coronation. With a Pete Dye track demanding precision, expect elite ball-strikers like Rahm, Casey, and Ballester to thrive. For bettors, this week offers juicy plus-money props and matchup angles—perfect for building hype and hitting value.
Drop your picks, celebrate your hits, and let’s ride the weekend wave.
— ClutchDailySports
