The PGA TOUR’s top 50 are in Owings Mills, Maryland, for the BMW Championship at Caves Valley Golf Club. This is playoff stop number two, and there’s no cut — every player will tee it up all four days.
Back in 2021, Caves Valley produced a ridiculous 27-under shootout, but that was before a 2023 renovation aimed at adding some bite. It’s still a course where ball-striking and birdie-making matter, but expect a touch more resistance this time around.
Key Thursday info:
The weather looks perfect — warm, light breeze around 7 mph, and just a small chance of rain. Morning starters might get slightly calmer conditions, but afternoon players could benefit from softer greens if a sprinkle rolls through.
Marquee tee times (ET):
9:21 – J.T. Poston
10:43 – Brian Harman, Patrick Cantlay
10:54 – Keegan Bradley, Maverick McNealy
11:05 – Ben Griffin, Russell Henley
11:16 – Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy
Cantlay is back at the site of his 2021 win, Scheffler enters as the betting favorite after a T3 last week, and Rory is fresh after skipping the St. Jude. Other hot hands include Tommy Fleetwood (T3 last week) and Ben Griffin, who’s been a Thursday threat all season.
What the models say:
DataGolf’s free projections put Scheffler at around a 23% win chance, Rory just over 6%, and Xander Schauffele in the 4% range. Comparing these to sportsbook odds is the easiest way to find value.
Sharp angles for Caves Valley:
- The renovations will cut down the birdie barrage, but long hitters and elite iron players still have the edge.
- In a no-cut, 50-man field, finishing-position bets like Top-10 or Top-20 tend to be more stable than in full-field events.
- Thursday’s friendly forecast makes First-Round Leader props more appealing, especially for players who traditionally start hot.
Best Bets for Thursday:
- Matt Fitzpatrick – Top-10 Finish (+240)
Fitzpatrick’s recent run includes multiple top-8 finishes. He thrives when courses demand precision and mental toughness, which could pay off if the renovations add bite. Short field and consistent ball-striking make him a strong plus-money play. - Ben Griffin – First-Round Leader (+3300)
Griffin has one of the better first-round scoring averages this year and has already been FRL in a few events. With calm conditions and an 11:05 tee time, he’s in the sweet spot to post an early number.
Value Parlay (if your sportsbook allows it):
- Fitzpatrick Top-10 (+240) × Chris Gotterup Top-10 (+230)
Fitzpatrick offers the consistency, while Gotterup brings big-time distance and recent high finishes, including a win in Scotland. In a short field, this combo has a realistic shot to hit for a boosted payout. If your book doesn’t offer same-event parlays for finishing positions, play them as two singles.
Beginner breakdown:
A Top-10 bet cashes if your golfer finishes in the top 10 by Sunday. First-Round Leader only counts for Thursday’s score — it doesn’t matter what happens after that. A parlay links multiple bets together for a bigger payout, but all legs have to win.
With the course in great shape, the weather cooperating, and some strong recent form in the field, Thursday is shaping up to be a fun start to the BMW Championship. Shop your odds, trust your reads, and bet responsibly.
