As we hit the heart of Round 3 in the BMW Championship and Round 2 in LIV Golf Indianapolis, bettors have plenty of action to dive into this Saturday. The BMW, the second FedExCup Playoff event at Caves Valley Golf Club in Maryland, features a tight field of top-50 players battling for Tour Championship spots on a demanding par-70 layout stretching about 7,542 yards. Over in Indiana, LIV’s debut at The Club at Chatham Hills—a Pete Dye par-71 at 7,143 yards—has already delivered fireworks with Sebastian Munoz’s historic 59 in the opener, setting up a chase for individual and team honors in the penultimate event of the season.
Starting with the PGA side, recent form spotlights Robert MacIntyre leading the pack with a scorching putter after solid opening rounds, while Scottie Scheffler’s all-around dominance keeps him in the hunt following his Masters win and other triumphs this year. Rory McIlroy is grinding for consistency after a patchy summer, and Tommy Fleetwood’s ball-striking has him positioned well. Course history from the 2021 edition here favors guys like Patrick Cantlay, who won in a playoff over Bryson DeChambeau (who carded a course-record 60), with McIlroy tying for fourth and strong showings from Sam Burns and Cameron Young.
Weather-wise, expect highs around 90°F with partial clouds and a risk of early thunderstorms easing off, paired with light winds and high humidity that could soften things up. The renovated course is playing firm and fast, with bentgrass greens that demand precision irons and smart navigation of the rolling terrain—it’s been stingy so far, averaging even par through 36 holes.
Tee times highlight a potential shotgun start due to weather, but key pairings include MacIntyre and Scheffler at 1:45 p.m. ET in the final group, Fleetwood with Michael Kim at 1:34 p.m., McIlroy alongside Ludvig Aberg at 1:23 p.m., Maverick McNealy and Harry Hall at 1:12 p.m., and Burns with Viktor Hovland at 1:01 p.m. Earlier waves kick off around 9:10 a.m., like Ryan Gerard going solo.
Analytics from sites like DataGolf give Scheffler a hefty win probability around 30% based on his strokes-gained edges, while Action Network flags Xander Schauffele for top-10 potential via his approach play. CBS projections like Taylor Pendrith as a top-20 value at +260 for his birdie bursts, and FantasyLabs models lean toward Fleetwood in big fields.
Sharp edges include leaning on 2021 familiarity for Cantlay at +1400 top-10 or McIlroy outright at +1400. Plus-money props worth eyeing: Fleetwood top-5 at +275 on his rebound upside, Aberg top-5 at +300 for his length, Schauffele top-5 at +333 amid playoff reliability, and longer shots like Young at +3000 for a low round.
For bets, I’m locking in Scheffler top-5 at +150—his tee-to-green mastery thrives on firm setups like this, and models have him surging today. Also, Fleetwood over par in Round 3 at +110, as his scrambling could falter under pressure on this track. For a value parlay, combine Scheffler top-10 at -120, McIlroy top-20 at +200, and Fleetwood over 3.5 birdies at +150 for around +800 payout—mixing safety with history and putting potential.
Shifting to LIV Indianapolis, no prior history on this new venue, but standout performers include Joaquin Niemann topping the season standings with relentless birdie-making, Jon Rahm sitting second and hungry for his first LIV victory, and DeChambeau in third after his Korea win. Munoz leads at -13 post-59, with Dustin Johnson at -9. Key stats show Henrik Stenson leading fairway hits, Niemann in birdies, and DeChambeau in eagles.
Conditions look solid with highs near 86°F, partial clouds, and a 30% thunderstorm chance, winds east at 5-10 mph. The Dye design packs subtle slopes, hidden bunkers, and water hazards—like the 469-yard par-4 fourth with a right-side penalty or the uphill 448-yard 18th—blending parkland vibes with sloping greens that test short games.
It’s a shotgun start at 11:05 a.m. ET across all 54 players, with notable groups like Niemann (-7), Thomas Pieters (-7), and Patrick Reed (-7) off Hole 1; DeChambeau, Rahm, and Niemann mixed in teams off Hole 2; and Carlos Ortiz, Sergio Garcia, and Munoz off Hole 3.
Projections from DataGolf’s live model peg Munoz at 95% top-10 after Round 1, Niemann around 76% top-10. WSN sees Rahm as the week favorite at +450 and Niemann for the season crown, with Wagertalk backing Rahm outright and Golf Monthly eyeing Reed as a sleeper.
Notable edges favor Rahm’s reliability at +450 against Niemann’s scoring prowess. Plus-money opportunities include Reed outright at +1800, Mito Pereira top-10 at +2500 as a dark horse, and team plays like 4Aces GC to podium at even money on Johnson’s momentum.
Bets to target: Rahm outright at +450—his scrambling and tee-to-green fit Dye’s tricks perfectly, and he’s primed for a breakthrough. Reed top-10 at +300, leveraging his short-game wizardry in a strong starting group. Parlay value: Rahm top-5 at +150, Niemann over 15.5 birdies at +120, and Munoz under par in Round 2 at +110 for about +700—tying consistency, scoring, and hot starts.
Overall, Caves Valley prioritizes accuracy for the PGA crew, while Chatham Hills rewards versatility in LIV. Keep an eye on weather for scoring shifts, and chase those historical and model-driven edges for the edge.
