WNBA Friday Breakdown: Injury Chaos, Prop Fire, and a Parlay Worth Posting

Friday’s WNBA slate is loaded with exploitable matchups and inflated lines. Three games, multiple key injuries, and two elite scoring guards in smash spots. Let’s cut straight to the angles that matter.

Lynx @ Fever (7:30 PM ET)

Indiana’s roster is gutted. Caitlin Clark, Danielle Robinson, and Nia Coffey are all out, leaving Kelsey Mitchell with full control of the offense. She’s cleared 22+ in five of her last seven and just dropped 38 on Connecticut. With Collier questionable for Minnesota, expect the Lynx to lean on McBride and push tempo early.

Mitchell’s usage is elite, and her assist rate has quietly climbed with Clark off the floor. Minnesota’s defense is top-tier, but Mitchell’s volume overrides matchup concerns.

Best Bet: Kelsey Mitchell Over 20.5 Points

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Storm @ Wings (7:30 PM ET)

Paige Bueckers is coming off a 44-point eruption and now faces the worst perimeter defense in the league. Dallas is without Ogunbowale and Quinerly, leaving them exposed against elite guards. The Wings are giving up 88+ at home and rank dead last in 3-point defense.

Seattle’s offense runs through Bueckers and Diggins, both in rhythm and facing a team that struggles with rotations and closeouts. Expect early pace and plenty of clean looks.

Best Bet: Paige Bueckers Over 19.5 Points

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Valkyries @ Mercury (10:00 PM ET)

Phoenix is rolling at home, hitting overs in six of their last seven. Bonner and Sabally anchor the offense, but Natasha Thomas has emerged as a stat-sheet monster—nearly a triple-double last time out. Valkyries may be without Zandalasini, which opens up interior scoring and rebounding angles.

Burton’s usage spike makes her a sneaky prop target if books post her lines, but the edge here is in the parlay.

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Parlay of the Night (+550)

• Bueckers Over 19.5 Points

• Mitchell Over 4.5 Assists

• Diggins Over 1.5 Made Threes

High usage, soft matchups, and proven form. All three legs are matchup-driven and backed by recent trends. Tail it, post it, and let the receipts fly.

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