The US Open rolls into its third day, and we’re starting to see storylines take shape in New York. The heavy favorites are cruising, but there are also a few young names looking to make a statement. Wednesday’s slate offers a mix of sure things and sneaky value, and we’ve dug into the numbers, matchups, and conditions to highlight the spots that stand out for bettors.
Djokovic vs. Svajda: Straightforward or Sneaky?
Novak Djokovic opens his second-round campaign against American Zachary Svajda. On paper, this is a mismatch. Djokovic is still the most complete player on tour: one of the best returners in history, elite at converting break points, and rock-solid under pressure. Svajda has some talent, but he hasn’t proven himself against this level of opposition.
The court conditions at Arthur Ashe usually play medium-fast, which only helps Djokovic impose his return game. Unless something strange happens, the outcome isn’t really in doubt. That said, straight moneyline prices on Djokovic offer no value. Bettors should look to the straight sets market or a game handicap (Djokovic -4.5 or better).
Alcaraz vs. Bellucci: The Next Step
Carlos Alcaraz looked sharp in his opener against Reilly Opelka, breaking serve with ease and dictating baseline exchanges. He’s up against Italy’s Mattia Bellucci, who has a much smaller résumé and little experience taking out top-five opponents.
Alcaraz’s ability to win points behind both his first and second serve, combined with his relentless return pressure, makes it tough to see Bellucci hanging around for long. Unless Alcaraz has an off day, this feels like a straight-sets win. The Alcaraz -7.5 games line or a straight-sets ticket is where the value lies.
Sabalenka vs. Kudermetova: Power Plays
Aryna Sabalenka is one of the most dangerous players on the WTA side. Her serve and heavy groundstrokes overwhelm most opponents, and Polina Kudermetova doesn’t have the tools to consistently neutralize that power.
Sabalenka does have her streaky moments, but if she finds her rhythm early, this could be quick. Books will price her heavily, but Sabalenka to win in straight sets or even an over aces prop if the number is low are ways to approach this match.
Pegula vs. Blinkova: Consistency Matters
Jessica Pegula isn’t flashy, but she is steady, and in Grand Slams, that goes a long way. She matches up against Anna Blinkova, who has the talent to score occasional upsets but tends to struggle against consistent top-10 opposition.
On a surface like Flushing Meadows hard courts, Pegula’s reliable return game should wear Blinkova down over time. The safer angle is Pegula -1.5 sets or a games handicap, depending on price.
The Young Gun to Watch: Fonseca vs. Macháč
If you’re looking for an upset or at least some drama, this is the match to circle. João Fonseca burst onto the scene with an impressive first-round win and has the crowd firmly behind him. Tomáš Macháč is the seeded player here, but his recent form hasn’t been convincing.
Fonseca has the type of high-variance, aggressive game that can catch fire for stretches, and with the atmosphere on his side, he’s a real threat to take a set or even the match. The best way to back him is through props: Fonseca to win a set or Fonseca to win the first set both carry plus-money potential.
Challenger Angle: Porto R16
If you’re hunting outside of New York, the Challenger circuit continues in Porto. These matches don’t get the same spotlight, but they often provide softer pricing. Look for players who came through qualifying and are riding momentum, or veterans returning from injury whose true level isn’t reflected in the market yet. Even one or two of these spots can offer real edges compared to the sharp US Open lines.
Best Bets for August 27
- João Fonseca to win a set (or First Set Winner)
The young Brazilian has momentum and an aggressive game that can trouble Macháč. With crowd energy behind him, the early set is a great spot. - Carlos Alcaraz to win in straight sets
Bellucci doesn’t have the firepower to stay in rallies long enough. Alcaraz should take care of business quickly.
Value Parlay
- Carlos Alcaraz to win the match (safe anchor)
- João Fonseca to win a set (value kicker)
This combo ties a near-lock with a plus-money angle, boosting the payout without going overboard on risk.
Final Word
Day 3 at the US Open features some predictable blowouts but also a few exciting spots where sharp bettors can find value. While Djokovic and Sabalenka should cruise, the better plays come from set handicaps and player props. The real fun lies in watching young João Fonseca, who could turn into the story of the day if he rides the momentum of his first-round win.
No comments:
Post a Comment
We love hearing your thoughts! Please keep comments respectful and relevant. By submitting a comment, you agree that it does not infringe on any third-party copyrights or violate our Copyright Policy. For details on how we use data, see our Cookie Policy.