Two games. Two quarterbacks with something to prove. And two juicy prop angles that could set the tone for your betting week. Let’s break down the matchups, highlight the key stats, and lock in the best bets for today’s NFL preseason slate.
🏟 Jaguars vs. Saints – 1:00 PM ET (Caesars Superdome)
Trevor Lawrence is expected to get early reps under new head coach Liam Coen, and that’s good news for prop bettors. Lawrence averaged over 200 passing yards per game last season and enters this preseason with a sharper scheme and more tempo. With rookie Travis Hunter questionable, expect short-area targets to Brenton Strange and Travis Etienne.
The Saints are rolling with Tyler Shough at QB, and while he’s shown flashes, this offense ranked bottom five last season and hasn’t added much firepower. Defensively, New Orleans struggled to contain explosive plays and finished near the bottom in pressure rate.
Key Edge: Jaguars have a top-10 offense and should dominate early drives indoors at the Superdome. No weather concerns here — just clean turf and fast tempo.
Best Bet: Trevor Lawrence Over 3.5 Completions on First Drive (-110)
This is a script-driven play. Expect quick reads, short throws, and a rhythm-building first series.
🌧 Bills vs. Bears – 8:00 PM ET (Soldier Field)
Josh Allen is back, and even in limited preseason action, he’s a threat to light it up. Last season, Allen posted 3,731 yards, 28 touchdowns, and a 101.4 passer rating. He’s expected to play a couple of series tonight, and with red zone reps likely, the TD upside is real.
On the other side, Caleb Williams makes his debut. The Bears are buzzing, but this is a tough draw. Buffalo’s defense ranked top 10 last season and returns most of its core. With high humidity and a chance of storms in Chicago, deep shots could be limited — favoring short passes and quick outs.
Key Edge: Allen’s red zone efficiency and preseason rhythm make him a plus-money target. The Bears defense is still young and vulnerable.
Best Bet: Josh Allen Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+115)
Allen doesn’t need much time to cash this. If he gets two drives, this is live.
💰 Value Parlay – +390 Payout
• Jaguars Moneyline
• Lawrence Over 3.5 First Drive Completions
• Allen Over 1.5 Passing TDs
This parlay leans into starter usage, scripted drives, and red zone efficiency. All three legs are backed by matchup edges and preseason trends.
Final Word
Sunday’s slate may be short, but the value is real. Lawrence is set up for a clean start indoors, and Allen’s TD upside is too good to ignore. The Jaguars are the sharper side, and the Bills should control tempo early. Lock in the props, ride the parlay, and let’s start the week with a win.
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