🏀⚾️ How We Did — Monday, August 11, 2025

Quick Recap — What Hit, What Missed

MLB Recap – Roller Coaster Night

• Phillies vs Reds – Under 8.5 → Hit (Final: PHI 4, CIN 1) — five-run 8th sealed it  
• Twins vs Yankees – Under 7.5 → Miss (Final: NYY 6, MIN 2 — total 8)  
• Tigers vs White Sox – Tigers -1.5 (+120) → Miss (Final: DET 2, CHW 1 — won by 1)  
• Pirates vs Brewers – Under 8 / First 5 Under 4.5 → Push / Miss (Final: MIL 7, PIT 1 — total 8 = push, first-5 missed)  
• Nationals vs Royals – Under 7.5 / Royals -1.5 (+135) → Split (Final: KC 7, WSH 4 — Royals ML/run-line hit, under failed)  
• Rockies vs Cardinals – Cardinals -1.5 (+125) → Hit (Final: STL 3, COL 2)  
• D-backs vs Rangers – First 5 Under 4 → Miss (Game ended TEX 7, ARI 6)  
• Red Sox vs Astros – Astros ML (-135) → Hit (Final: HOU 7, BOS 6)  
• Dodgers vs Angels – Dodgers -1.5 → Miss (Final: LAA 7, LAD 4)  
• Padres vs Giants – Under 7 / Slight Giants ML → Under Hit / ML Miss (Final: SD 4, SF 1)  
• Rays vs Athletics – Rays ML or First 5 Rays → Hit (Final: TB 7, OAK 4)  

MLB takeaway: Under’s and starter-heavy plays paid off (Phillies, Astros, Rays, Cardinals), but run-line calls and early total plays wasted some of that edge — plus a couple of overruns and a push.

WNBA Recap – Sun vs Valkyries

• Golden State -9 → Hit (Final: GSW 74, CON 57, covered by 17)  
• Under 156 Total → Hit (Total: 131)  
• Props (Alyssa Thomas, Brionna Jones, etc.) → Miss / No-Go — key players underperformed or were limited in role  

WNBA takeaway: Clean night on the spread and total — props were shaky, as expected with the Sun’s inconsistent usage.

Why Some Picks Missed

• Close RL results (Tigers) — high variance; narrow finishes kill run-line value.
• First-5/early total overruns — late surges (Arizona, Brewers) ruin early success.
• Prop volatility — sleeper lineups and off nights make props risky without last-minute intel.

What I’ll Do Differently

1. Flag run-line plays as higher variance and suggest smaller units unless mismatch is clear.
2. Add a quick lineup/injury check before props — a must.
3. Keep targeting starter matchups and unders — that edge shows up most nights.

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