August 12 Betting Recap — MLB & WNBA

Baseball delivered some textbook wins, a few near-misses, and a reminder that even the sharpest angles can be derailed by unpredictable twists. Let’s run through every pick we made and see how they actually played out.

Mariners vs. Orioles

We leaned Seattle thanks to George Kirby’s elite control and Baltimore’s slumping bats. The Mariners did exactly what we expected, winning 1-0 behind Kirby’s seven innings of three-hit, zero-walk dominance. The Mariners moneyline hit. Kirby went over his strikeout prop, so if you took the under there, that was the one blemish. Julio Rodríguez didn’t have a huge day at the plate, so the H+R+RBI prop didn’t land, but the overall game read was spot-on.

Phillies vs. Reds

We flagged offense on both sides, Harper props, and the Over 9.5. This one didn’t explode quite as expected. Harper reached base but didn’t cash the total bases or HR props, and the game finished under the projected runs. Great American Ball Park didn’t play as hitter-friendly as forecasted on this night, so this call came up short.

Marlins vs. Guardians

The edge went to Cleveland’s moneyline and José Ramírez over 0.5 RBI at plus money. Cleveland pulled out a win, so the moneyline landed. Ramírez had a solid game at the plate, but the RBI prop didn’t hit. Half-win situation here.

Quick Hit Picks Across the Slate

Rodón over 6.5 Ks cashed as he continued his dominance against Minnesota. Cubs hitters did get to Berríos early, so the “offense early” angle worked. Strider’s strikeout upside was real—he hit double-digit Ks against the Mets. Flaherty handled the White Sox, another correct lean. Wacha and the Royals game stayed under. Peralta vs. Skenes was a pitcher’s duel—Skenes went over his 7.5 Ks, so that was another winner. Liberatore got touched up in Coors as expected, pushing the total over. Rangers bats showed up against Leiter. Boston bats delivered versus Arrighetti. Dodgers bats remained in play and produced. Giants–Padres stayed under expectations with Ray’s return managed. Tampa kept an under at home.

Top Props

Juan Soto over 0.5 RBI didn’t get home, as he went hitless. Paul Skenes over 7.5 strikeouts cashed.

Value Parlay

Rodón over Ks and Mariners ML hit, but Peralta under 5.5 hits allowed missed. No parlay payout.

WNBA Recap

Dallas Wings @ Indiana Fever

We called for usage bumps for Ogunbowale if Bueckers sat and for Kelsey Mitchell with Caitlin Clark out. Bueckers did play, so Ogunbowale didn’t get the massive bump we forecasted, but Mitchell still carried heavy offensive load and scored enough to get over her line. Dallas won 81-80 in a tight game, so the player-driven angles mostly landed.

New York Liberty @ Los Angeles Sparks

We liked Cameron Brink’s scoring and rebounding overs against a thin Liberty frontcourt. That angle was crushed early when Brink left in the second quarter with an ankle injury. The overs had no shot from that point. The Liberty, however, poured in a season-high 105 points and won 105-97, so any team-total or offensive overs cashed.

Final Thoughts

On the baseball side, we nailed the Mariners, most of the quick-hit picks, and both Skenes and Rodón props. The Phillies–Reds over didn’t materialize, and a few plus-money props like Julio Rodríguez H+R+RBI and Soto RBI missed. In the WNBA, the Fever–Wings read was right on usage and scoring, but Brink’s early exit sunk the Sparks prop plays.

The biggest wins came from sticking to controllable edges—pitcher form, park factors, and established usage roles—while the misses were mostly tied to unpredictable in-game swings and injuries. Solid night overall with clear lessons for the next slate.

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